Bali Villa Price Index Q3 2026: Cost-Per-Square-Meter Benchmark Across 8 Corridors (294 Data Points)

Key takeaways

• 294 verified asking-price data points across 8 Bali corridors compiled June 2026 for Q3 2026 reference
• ENTRY-tier ($300-500k) median asking ranges $167k (Nusa Dua) to $492k (Uluwatu)
• TROPHY-tier ($1M+) median asking ranges $1.08M (Canggu) to $1.70M (Ubud)
• Cross-corridor median $/m² built: $1,929 — range $1,207 (Nusa Dua) to $2,374 (Pererenan)
• Freehold premium vs comparable leasehold: clean +12% to +38% depending on corridor maturity
• Asking-vs-transacted gap: typically 8-12% downward — apply discount for transaction-grade index

Bali Villa Select compiles this quarterly because foreign buyers consistently report broker-supplied price benchmarks that range 40-60% wider than what we observe across multiple independent sources. The point of this index is not to replace transacted-price registries (which do not exist in Bali for residential foreign-buyer stock), but to set a credible reference point for the asking-price market. Use it as a sanity check on broker-quoted entries.

The Q3 2026 dataset covers 8 corridors × 3 price tiers = 24 reference cells, plus per-corridor $/m² built benchmarks and freehold-versus-leasehold premium readings.

Methodology in one paragraph

Asking-price data points pulled from 7 public broker platforms (bali-home-immo.com, exotiqproperty.com, baliexception.com, villabalisale.com, propertia.com, harcourtspurbabali.com, prestigepropertybali.com) between April and June 2026, plus the Bali Villa Select internal marketplace (14 verified listings). Each row captures asking price normalized to USD at 16,200 IDR/USD, bedrooms, built m² where disclosed, land m², ownership structure (Hak Sewa leasehold years remaining or freehold / PT PMA), and source URL. Outliers excluded: commercial multi-villa compounds (5BR+ at developer wholesale), boutique-hotel hospitality assets, sub-residential micro-units under 30 m² built, and properties with structurally implausible m² claims. Per-tier medians and 25th/75th percentiles computed on cleaned data. Total clean data points: 294 (target Q4 2026 update: 400+).

The 24-cell price matrix

Median asking price in USD per corridor and tier. Tiers: ENTRY ($300-500k), MID ($500k-$1M), TROPHY ($1M+).

Reading the matrix

ENTRY-tier range $167k to $492k — a 2.9x corridor spread. This is by far the most actionable cell for $300-500k foreign-investor capital. Nusa Dua's low entry median is driven by ITDC-adjacent off-plan small-land stock; Uluwatu's elevated entry median reflects the high clifftop floor where below-$300k product is structurally rare. The $336k Sanur entry and $278k Pererenan entry represent the strongest value-per-dollar for genuine 3BR Hak Sewa product within 10 minutes of beach.

MID-tier ($500k-$1M) is the deepest pool — 73 data points across the 8 corridors. The Pererenan ($691k) and Sanur ($699k) MID medians are within 1.2 percent of each other despite radically different corridor characters. This reflects a structural market-clearing level for 3-4BR family-grade product across mature secondary corridors.

TROPHY-tier ($1M+) bifurcates clearly. Canggu trophy ($1.08M) is the lowest because the mature core's existing trophy inventory is older and the new-build trophy stream goes to Berawa/Pererenan. Ubud trophy ($1.70M) and Seminyak trophy ($1.54M) reflect the resilient ceiling on residential foreign-buyer stock at the structurally scarce edge.

The $/m² built benchmark

Median price per m² of built area, computed on 162 data points where built m² was disclosed.

The Pererenan-versus-Nusa-Dua delta is the cleanest single signal in this index. Nusa Dua delivers $1,207/m² with structural land scarcity benefits (HGB freehold standard) — Pererenan delivers $2,374/m² with elastic new-supply pricing. Buyers underwriting on $/m² alone consistently miss this: Nusa Dua $/m² looks too cheap because the corridor's freehold inventory bundles larger land plots into the median.

Freehold versus leasehold price premium

Computed on matched-specification pairs (same beds, same approximate built m², same corridor) where both freehold and Hak Sewa leasehold listings are available simultaneously.

The Pererenan compression is the most actionable arbitrage in this index. Buyers paying within 7-15 percent of Hak Sewa leasehold prices can secure freehold structure with smaller land plots (156-220 m² typical) in a corridor that the editorial desk projects will trade to Canggu-style 130-140 percent freehold premiums within 24-36 months as the corridor matures.

Per-corridor narrative (Q3 2026)

Canggu (mature core, n=46)

The mature core is now an arbitrage-thin market. Entry-tier asking medians ($339k for 25-year Hak Sewa 3BR) are stable. Mid-tier ($648k) is the largest pool with 14 active listings. Trophy ($1.08M median, 10 listings) is structurally older inventory — most new-build trophy supply is being channeled to Berawa/Pererenan rather than central Canggu. The freehold premium of 130-140 percent on matched-spec 3BR reflects that new freehold land in the saturated core has essentially stopped being created.

Berawa (Canggu sub-corridor, n=39)

Berawa entry-tier median ($400k) sits roughly 1.4-1.5x of generic Canggu entry. Trophy ($1.19M median) is dominated by leasehold 4-6BR product near the beach. Off-plan branded-residence stock (Echo Beach, Mahaway, Bali Living developments) trades direct from developer and does NOT appear in broker MLS — therefore the actual trophy ceiling in Berawa is materially above what this dataset captures. Conservative reading: broker MLS underrepresents Berawa trophy by 30-40 percent.

Pererenan (emerging Canggu adjacent, n=46)

The clearest arbitrage signal in this index. Entry-tier median ($278k) trades 22 percent below Canggu entry. Trophy-tier median ($1.42M) is the second-highest in this index because river+ocean view 4-5BR product is increasingly cross-priced with Canggu trophy. The 7-15 percent freehold premium is unusually compressed — sellers are pricing freehold close to leasehold to clear new inventory while supply elasticity remains high. The editorial desk projects this premium will widen to Canggu-style 130-140 percent within 24-36 months as Pererenan matures.

Uluwatu (Bukit clifftop, n=33)

Off-plan dominated with thin resale liquidity. Entry-tier median ($492k) is elevated because below-$300k product is structurally rare in the Bukit. Trophy-tier median ($1.34M) is supported by genuine clifftop freehold scarcity. The 30-60 percent per-land-m² freehold premium reflects that buildable clifftop land is a closed-supply asset. Single trophy listings at $2.28M and above (East Uluwatu newly built) define the upper bound for residential foreign-buyer stock.

Seminyak (mature deep, n=36)

The deepest resale market in this index — 36 data points with the widest bid-ask gap (40 percent range on comparable 3BR leasehold). One Exotiq listing explicitly priced "under value for lease" at $1.60M / 856 m² built ($1,875/m²) confirms motivated-seller dynamics in the trophy tier. The lease-length premium is brutal: 35-year remaining Hak Sewa trades at approximately 100 percent premium per built m² versus 24-year remaining for same-corridor 2BR product. Long-lease pricing discipline is consistent.

Sanur (east coast, n=37)

The steady-yield corridor. Entry-tier median ($336k) is dominated by 3BR Hak Sewa family product on tiny lots. The Sanur freehold-minus-leasehold per-built-m² gap (-11.6 percent) is a size-mix artifact rather than a real signal — freehold inventory tends toward larger Harcourts trophy stock (612-1,236 m² built) which dilutes the per-m² number. On apples-to-apples matched-spec ENTRY pairs the freehold premium reverses positive. Trophy is thin (n=4) but contains the single highest residential asking in this corridor at $2.76M (Harcourts central Sanur 4BR freehold).

Ubud (interior wellness, n=34)

The wellness-anchored interior corridor delivers the textbook freehold premium reading (+37.8 percent per built m²) because land is the binding scarcity factor, not the build. Trophy ($1.70M median, 8 data points) is the deepest trophy pool in the index — riverfront and Petanu River frontage 4-5BR freehold estates with 700-2,910 m² land typical. NOTE: branded-residence Ubud stock (Como Uma adjacency, Banyan Tree Buahan, Capella branded units) sells direct from developer and is excluded from this dataset — broker MLS underrepresents true Ubud trophy ceiling by 30-40 percent.

Nusa Dua (institutional ITDC, n=23)

Lowest entry-tier asking median in the index ($167k) and lowest $/m² built ($1,207). Both numbers are structural rather than a discount signal. Entry-tier inventory is off-plan 2-3BR product on small lots adjacent to ITDC-masterplanned land (Mumbul, Kutuh, Sawangan). Per-m² number compressed because freehold inventory bundles larger land (450-1,200 m² typical) into the median. Trophy ($1.19M median) converges with Berawa trophy — but for the same dollar Nusa Dua delivers materially more land. Modest freehold premium (+11.5 percent) reflects ITDC's regulated rather than market-constrained land supply.

Asking-versus-transacted gap

All medians in this index are asking prices, not transactions. Bali has no public transacted-price registry for residential foreign-buyer stock, and broker-reported transacted figures carry consistent downward bias from asking:

• Single explicitly-flagged "motivated seller" Seminyak listing: 25 percent below comparable trophy-lease pricing
• Common Berawa 30-day-listing markdown pattern: 5-8 percent off asking
• Closing-gap convention reported by closing notaries: 8-12 percent below asking

Applied across the full dataset: a buyer reading the ENTRY-tier $339k Canggu median should anticipate transacting around $310-320k for like-spec product. Trophy-tier $1.08M Canggu median should anticipate $940-990k transacted. The 8-12 percent discount is the editorial desk's reference convention until consistent transacted data becomes available.

What this index does NOT capture

Five exclusions disclosed for methodological hygiene:

1. Direct-from-developer branded-residence stock (Como Uma, Banyan Tree Buahan, Capella, Mahaway, Bali Living, Echo Beach Estates) which trades direct without broker MLS exposure. Estimated 30-40 percent of true trophy-tier transactions in Berawa, Ubud, Uluwatu.
2. Off-market trophy transactions at $5M+ levels (Nyang Nyang $20M+ tier, exceptional clifftop estates). Single trophy listings show but full transaction stream does not.
3. Pre-purchase land plots sold separately from villa builds. This index covers built or off-plan-villa product only.
4. Investment-grade boutique-hotel hospitality assets (6+ bedroom resort-style compounds). Excluded as commercial rather than residential.
5. Distressed sales below market floors — properties priced 25+ percent below median for the corridor are flagged but excluded from medians on review.

Internal cross-references

• Canggu Property Investment Guide 2026 — full corridor read for mature core
• Berawa Property Investment Guide 2026 — Berawa standalone sub-corridor breakdown
• Uluwatu Property Investment Guide 2026 — Bukit clifftop corridor analysis
• Seminyak Property Investment Guide 2026 — mature deep market characteristics
• Sanur Property Investment Guide 2026 — east-coast steady-yield corridor
• Ubud Property Investment Guide 2026 — interior wellness market structure
• Nusa Dua Property Investment Guide — institutional ITDC tier
• Bali Property Tax Guide 2026 — annual + transactional tax stack on these prices
• AJB Hak Sewa Signing Step-by-Step — transaction-day process
• Pondok Wisata Licensing Complete Guide — STR-licensing layer on commercial use
• PT PMA vs Leasehold Decision Tree — structural choice impacting entry pricing
• Bali Villa Exit Modelling 2026 — projecting exit returns on these acquisition prices
• Bali Villa Select Marketplace — verified independent inventory cross-referenced in this dataset
• Editorial Methodology — source tiers, citation rules, refresh schedule

Next quarterly refresh

This dataset is published quarterly on a 90-day refresh cycle.

• 2026-09-30 — Q4 2026 reference index (target dataset size: 400+ data points, methodology v1.1)
• 2026-12-31 — Q1 2027 reference index with full-year-2026 retrospective overlay
• 2027-03-31 — Q2 2027 reference index with first cross-quarter delta table

Corrections to any published cell are tracked publicly in the editorial corrections registry at https://balivillaselect.com/corrections within 48 hours of verification. The editorial desk maintains a USD 50 bug bounty for verifiable factual errors per the corrections-bounty policy.

For investors needing a structural read on a specific property within this dataset, the Bali Villa Select desk reviews individual acquisitions against the index. Request a structured pre-purchase review via methodology page.