01 · Regulation
BKPM capital interpretation, tightened.
Current BKPM interpretive guidance is being applied more strictly for new PT PMA registrations classifying villa rentals as a primary business line. Existing PMAs appear unaffected for now. If you are mid-registration, have your notaris confirm the new capital compliance position before continuing.
02 · Transactions
Canggu mid-tier is rotating, not collapsing.
The first clear signs of buyer selectivity in mid-tier Canggu since the 2022 reopening: modest concessions on deals above 90 days on market, particularly in northern Canggu and early Pererenan. Prime pockets (Batu Bolong, Echo Beach) are holding. We are watching the spread between these sub-corridors closely.
03 · Data
The Uluwatu auction that reset a sub-corridor.
One disclosed clifftop transaction this month closed materially above the previous comparable in the same 500-metre segment. Auction structure, not private treaty. It reset the pricing reference for the next six months in that specific sub-corridor – and flagship brokers are already repricing three other listings against the new comp.
04 · Projects
A Sayan lease-extension precedent.
A notable Ubud wellness property completed a lease extension this month under terms that will be referenced in the Sayan corridor for years. The headline: a 20-year extension negotiated three years ahead of expiry, priced against forward-looking yield rather than backward-looking transaction comps. Expect other properties to attempt similar framings.
05 · We changed our mind
Nusa Dua land math is less bad than we thought.
We previously argued Nusa Dua villa development had compressed too far for small-format projects. A closer read of 2025 RevPAR data (Apurva, Mulia, Conrad comparables) suggests we underweighted the structural occupancy premium of BTDC-enclave-adjacent product. Updated conclusion: small-format Nusa Dua still hard, but mid-format (50–80 keys) with branded operator is working better than we credited.