Q1 close, early Q2 signals, and one regulatory move worth tracking.

The one-minute version

• Q1 2026 transactions closed roughly flat on Q4 2025 volume, with pricing stable at the top and softening in mid-tier Canggu and Pererenan.
• Tourism arrivals continue to track above the 2019 baseline on a trailing 12-month basis, with Australia, Singapore, and India leading growth.
• BKPM guidance on PMA minimum capital classification for villa-rental businesses tightened in a way that affects new structures more than existing ones.
• Uluwatu clifftop indicative land pricing held firm; Canggu prime pockets showed mid-single-digit softening.
• Q3 pipeline includes two material openings in Canggu that will reshape the district's mid-luxury positioning.

Transactions

Disclosed Bali property transactions in Q1 2026 remained in line with Q4 2025 on a volume basis. The mix shifted slightly: larger single- transaction tickets – primarily clifftop and prime Seminyak – held pricing, while mid-tier Canggu and early-stage Pererenan showed the first clear signs of buyer selectivity since the 2022 reopening. Sellers who had been underwriting an uninterrupted price ladder through 2026 are beginning to accept modest concessions on deals above 90 days on market.

Investors should read this not as a correction but as a mild rotation: buyer attention is moving away from quantity-driven Canggu product and toward scarcity-driven Uluwatu and Ubud. Underwriting should reflect that pricing power is now tied much more tightly to defensible location than to amenity package.

Regulation – the BKPM note worth tracking

BKPM's current interpretive guidance on the IDR 10 billion PMA minimum capital threshold is being applied more strictly for new PT PMA registrations classifying villa rental as a primary business line. The net effect: investors setting up new PMA structures in 2026 should budget for the full capital commitment up-front rather than relying on grandfathered structures used in 2021–2023 registrations.

Existing PMAs appear unaffected for now, but we are watching for any secondary guidance extending the tighter interpretation to renewal filings. Any foreign investor operating a villa rental through an older PMA structure should have their notaris confirm the compliance posture of the entity before initiating new land acquisitions.

Tourism

Bali's tourist arrival trajectory through Q1 2026 remains above 2019 levels on a rolling twelve-month basis, according to BPS Provinsi Bali monthly releases. The mix continues to shift toward Australia (which re-established itself as the largest single-country source market in 2024–2025), Singapore, and India. China arrivals remain materially below 2019 peak but have recovered meaningfully quarter- over-quarter. Russia/CIS arrivals have stabilised at post-2022 plateau levels.

For investors, this mix matters more than the headline total. Australia, Singapore, and India skew toward leisure and family travel, which supports Canggu, Uluwatu, and Seminyak ADR. The partial China recovery is most relevant to Nusa Dua and large- format group-booking hospitality.

Pipeline – what to watch in Q3

Two notable Canggu-area openings are scheduled for Q3 2026. Both will test the district's capacity to absorb new mid-luxury inventory without further ADR pressure. Investors with exposure to existing Canggu villa product should watch RevPAR in the two quarters following these openings – material compression in the broader Canggu ADR band would be the first confirmation that the district's growth phase is entering a different regime.

What we are watching next month

• Whether the BKPM guidance generates a secondary memo extending to PMA renewals.
• April–May transaction mix: if mid-tier Canggu volume recovers or softens further.
• The first two Q3 openings and their pricing strategy on launch.
• Any Ubud wellness-segment new-build announcements that would pressure the Sayan–Mas corridor.